// AI Research
AI Research Lab
Daily AI recap, natural-language screening, model predictions and event-probability edges.
Today's Insight · AIMirrorQuant Performance Tracker
Model accuracy 30D: 64.2% vs market consensus 51%
Our AI's 30-day rolling hit-rate on directional calls is 64.2%, beating the implied market consensus by 13.2 percentage points. Strongest edge: BTC 24h calls (71%).
Open Performance Board →// AI Daily Market Brief
Daily Market Brief
Auto-generated every morning: prediction-market moves, stock heat, macro events, and the AI's lean for the day.
AI Daily Market Brief · 2026-07-07
Risk-on tone holds as AI leadership rotates into industrials
Prediction markets repriced the Fed cut path higher, AI breadth narrowed while industrials joined the bid, and macro vol continued to compress.
Prediction markets
- ▸Fed cuts ≥25bp by Sep: 71¢ (+4¢ 24h) — fastest mover on the board.
- ▸BTC > $130k by Dec: 38¢ (-2¢) as funding cools off.
- ▸US recession in 2026: 22¢, three-week low.
Stock heatmap shift
- ▸Industrials +1.8% lead the tape; CAT, DE, ETN breakout candidates.
- ▸Mega-cap AI breadth narrowed: only NVDA + AVGO above 20-day high.
- ▸Defensives lag — XLP -0.6%, XLU -0.4%.
Macro & events
- ▸10y yield -4bp to 4.18%; 2s10s steepens 3bp.
- ▸DXY -0.3%; gold +0.8% as real yields ease.
- ▸Key tomorrow: US Core PCE, ECB Lagarde, $50B 7y auction.
AI view
- ▸Model lean: tactically risk-on, hedge with long-duration treasuries.
- ▸Edge basket: industrials > semis > defensives over next 5 sessions.
- ▸Watch: a hot Core PCE print would invalidate the cut-path bid.
Today's AI recap
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2026-06-24 · Neutral
Risk-on bid, but breadth is narrowing
Mega-cap semis carried the tape again — NVDA +2.4%, AVGO +2.0%. Equal-weight S&P lagged. Treasury 10Y eased 6bps after a soft auction. Crypto: BTC reclaimed $102k, funding modestly positive. Watch tomorrow's PCE for the next leg.
Chat to Chart · natural-language screener
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Model predictions
Our internal models' current probability calls.
| Asset | Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | Next 5 min | ▲ UP | 54% | 62 |
| BTC | Next 24 h | ▲ UP | 58% | 71 |
| SPX | EOD close | ▲ UP | 62% | 64 |
| NVDA | EOD close | ▲ UP | 66% | 73 |
| ETH | Next 24 h | ▼ DOWN | 51% | 48 |
| GOLD | Next 24 h | ▲ UP | 55% | 56 |
Event probabilities · AI vs Market
When our AI edge diverges from market price, an opportunity is forming.
| Event | Market | AI | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fed cuts at May FOMC | 31% | 36% | +5.0% |
| BTC > $105k by Q2 2026 | 62% | 58% | -4.0% |
| NBER recession declared 2026 | 24% | 19% | -5.0% |
| May CPI prints < 3.0% | 58% | 64% | +6.0% |
AI vs Market · 30-day accuracy
Our model's rolling directional hit-rate vs the market-implied consensus.