// Cycle

Economic Cycle Regime

Locate the current regime and adapt your stock picks accordingly.

OverviewCycleLiquidity & RatesInflationYield CurveCross-AssetSector RegimeRisk LabMacro ScreenerEventsCryptoAI Diagnosis

// Current Regime

Overheatsince 2026-02 · conf 72%
PMI
52.4
CPI YoY
3.1%

// Playbook

  • Energy
  • Materials
  • Financials
  • Dividend value

// Four-quadrant Heatmap

Recovery
High PMI · Low CPI
Growth potential, semis, discretionary
Overheat
High PMI · High CPI
Energy, materials, financials, value
Stagflation
Low PMI · High CPI
Defensive staples, gold, high-yield
Recession
Low PMI · Low CPI
Long-duration tech, treasuries, utilities

Leading · Coincident · Lagging Indicators

// Leading

  • ISM Manufacturing PMI52.4 ▲
  • Consumer Confidence106.1 ▼
  • New Orders54.2 ▲
  • 10Y-3M Spread-0.9 ▲

// Coincident

  • Nonfarm Payrolls175 ▼
  • Industrial Production0.4 ▲
  • Retail Sales0.6 ▲

// Lagging

  • Unemployment Rate4.1 ▲
  • Core CPI YoY3.1 ▼
  • Unit Labor Costs2.4 ▼

Recession Risk Score

Elevated but not imminent

34/100
Yield Curve
62w 30%
Credit Spreads (HY)
28w 25%
Unemployment Trend
22w 20%
PMI Manufacturing
34w 15%
Leading Index
18w 10%
DisclaimerAll prediction-market, equity and AI content on MirrorQuant is for research and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.