// Prediction Markets
Prediction Dashboard
Live probabilities across Polymarket, Manifold, Kalshi and our own model — plus cross-venue arbitrage.
Today's Insight · PredictionMirrorQuant Prob-Engine v2.1
Edge on May CPI — AI 6pts above market
Kalshi prices May CPI < 3.0% at 58¢ while our event-probability model sits at 64%. Highest conviction trade on the board with 19 days to resolution.
Open event →Hot events
Sorted by 24h volume
| Question | YES | 24H Δ | Ends in |
|---|---|---|---|
| CryptoWill BTC close above $105k by Q2 2026? | 62¢ | +4.2% | 42d |
| MacroWill the Fed cut rates at the May FOMC? | 31¢ | -2.8% | 11d |
| MacroS&P 500 closes above 6,000 by year-end? | 41¢ | +0.7% | 215d |
| CryptoWill SEC approve ETH ETF staking in 2026? | 48¢ | +1.6% | 240d |
| MacroUS recession declared by NBER in 2026? | 24¢ | -0.9% | 240d |
| CryptoWill SOL trade above $200 before Aug 1? | 55¢ | +3.1% | 82d |
| SportsCeltics win the 2026 NBA Finals? | 36¢ | +5.4% | 38d |
| MacroUS May CPI prints below 3.0%? | 58¢ | -1.2% | 19d |
| CryptoBTC next 5-minute candle: UP? | 51¢ | +0.4% | 3m |
| CryptoBTC next 5-minute candle: DOWN? | 49¢ | -0.4% | 3m |